So why is a poll that clearly shows the public viewing Republicans responsible for the Shut Down at 53 percent and the President only at 31 percent misleading. First of all the Poll is of a population of only 800 our margin of error is going to be roughly 4%. We also know the poll included roughly 240 cell phone only contacts, statistically speaking cell phone only calls over sample Democrats http://abcnews.go.com/WN/cell-phones-demography-nielsen-data-breaks-mobile-phone/story?id=11468925. This being the case over 25% of the population has already been an oversample of people who would in fact be sympathetic to the President during the so called shut down. For simplicity sake lets assume that the cell phone usage sways 55 45 in the we now can adjust our margin of error by a +/- 9% meaning that the President would be marginal 4 points up over the Republicans.
Here is the next and more important factor though. The President answers to different people. House Republicans and Senate Republicans like Senate Democrats and House Democrats answer to their respective districts for the House and state for the Senate. The President by contrast must win the electoral collage for each state. This means that while in bearing responsibility in the public eye the President may be faring slightly better nationwide but it says nothing about the districts.
Think of the classic red map from the 2000 or 2004 election. While Senators Gore and Kerry may have done well in the polls number wise, electoral votes and district wise both candidates were beaten.
The poll NBC provided and I linked at the beginning says nothing of the cross tabs. We don’t know individual districts. Without that data this poll is incredibly misleading.
Congressional and Republican approval may be at an all time low but so is the President with a rating of 37% .
Bottom line what the true public approval is at this point is any body’s guess. The situation for the past few weeks isn’t good for government but it has been good for the Constitution. We have seen the battle of the Constitution Article 1 vs. Article 2 and just who in Government has what powers.
I would be curious if more people had a good education on the Constitution just what the opinion would be. Take politics aside this entire shut down, or stall being that only 17% was actually shut down, this situation is entirely Constitutional. The Congress doesn’t take an oath the continue government nor to continue funding laws previous Congress have passed they take an oath to uphold the Constitution. This oath has held true regardless of what any person likes.
“I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the
Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and
domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; that I
take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose
of evasion; and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of
the office on which I am about to enter. [So help me God.]“
