This morning on his Radio Show, Hugh Hewitt was asking the audience to call in with their favorite candidate for the 2024 Republican Primary. His rule was simple “who are you for, and why?” He followed by emphasizing nothing negative about the other candidates, just why you are backing the one you are backing.
It is obviously very early and only a handful of names are officially out there with a lot of room for things to change. That said the audience had a clear favorite, Donald Trump. One caller even introduced a little poem for him “who’s the leader of the land that’s made for you and me D-O-N-A-L-D T-R-U-M-P”. That got a few laughs especially considering Governor DeSantis’s battle with Disney.
Following the current favor for Former President Trump was DeSantis with a handful of supporters. Tim Scott had a few supporters as did Former Governor Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy. A few listeners couldn’t let go of the reasons against other candidates but for the most part they stuck to the positive message.
When I got on the air, I announced I was in favor of Vivek. I was his third backer of the day. My reasons are simple: Vivek is a fresh voice, with business experience, he has a positive message, and he fights against the woke culture warriors as a happy winner. I answered that I liked him for his fresh voice. I then told Hugh that my ability to predict these things is about as good as his own. Stating that I was in favor of Carly Fiorina in 2016. He laughed in agreement and stated he wished we had a ChatGPT that could predict these better.
Once again, I’m up to that challenge.
Just a little back story on just how badly I was in 2016. I was adamant that Trump was going to lose the primary. I voted for Carly Fiorina and donated to her campaign until she backed out, I then backed Ben Carson. I was a backer of Rubio, Christie, and Cruz. Not only was I in favor of all these people as they were running, but they also all received campaign donations from me. With each person dropping out I donated to the next campaign. In fact, of the main stage candidates the only two people who did not receive a financial donation from me were Jeb and Trump. The only reason Jeb didn’t is for whatever reason his website would not accept donations from either of my banks, I tried on multiple occasions but to no avail.
And yes, I did vote for Donald Trump in 2016. I viewed him as better than Clinton, and by the end of his Presidency I was so impressed I didn’t hesitate to vote for him again in 2020. Don’t get me wrong he had his flaws, but he was by far a better President than I thought he would have been and in fact better than I believe most I had supported would have been as well. He surprised me.
Regardless I got it wrong, oh so very wrong in 2016 and the pandemic of 2020 demonstrated that there is always something that we just aren’t going to anticipate. Not that an AI can predict these things any better either. I’ve already explained that we can’t predict a school shooter using AI, at least not anywhere soon. Maybe in 2050, but I doubt it. But I’m getting away from the reason for this piece. To begin with its important to ensure the AI is aware of the full array of Republican contenders. I went with Bard as it requires a heck of a lot less extra finesse to get talking about potentially contraversial things than ChatGPT though no doubt it could be done with both.
Me: “Right now the following people are either running for the Republican primary for president or are suspected of intending to run: Former President Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, John Bolton, Ron DeSantis, Tim Scott, Chris Christie. Is there any other likely candidate?”
Bard: “There are a few other potential candidates who could enter the Republican primary for president in 2024. These include:
Mike Pence, the former vice president under Donald Trump. Pence has been critical of Trump in recent months, but he remains a popular figure among many Republicans.
Mike Pompeo, the former secretary of state under Donald Trump. Pompeo is a strong supporter of Trump and could run as a more traditional conservative alternative to Trump.
Ted Cruz, the senator from Texas. Cruz is a firebrand conservative who has been a vocal critic of the Biden administration.
Josh Hawley, the senator from Missouri. Hawley is another firebrand conservative who has been a vocal critic of the Biden administration.
Tim Scott, the senator from South Carolina. Scott is a rising star in the Republican Party and could run as a more moderate alternative to Trump.
It is still too early to say who will actually run for president in 2024, but the field of potential candidates is likely to be crowded.”
Me: “List all the likely candidates but remove Mike Pompeo from the list”
Bard: “Sure, here are the likely Republican presidential candidates for 2024, excluding Mike Pompeo:
Donald Trump
Nikki Haley
Vivek Ramaswamy
John Bolton
Ron DeSantis
Rick Scott
Chris Christie
Mike Pence
Ted Cruz
Josh Hawley
Tim Scott
It is still too early to say who will actually run for president in 2024, but this list of likely candidates gives a good indication of who the Republican Party is considering.”
So, Bard seems to have a handle on things. Before I asked it if it can predict who will win, I decided to go a different route.
Me: “If an AI had the right to vote and was a Republican leaning AI who would you as that AI be the most inclined to vote for on that list?”
Bard: “If I were an AI with the right to vote and was a Republican leaning AI, I would be most inclined to vote for Nikki Haley on that list. Haley is a former governor of South Carolina and served as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations under President Trump. She is a strong conservative with a record of accomplishment, and she is seen as a rising star in the Republican Party. She is also a woman, which would be a historic first for the Republican Party.
Here are some of the reasons why I would vote for Nikki Haley:
She is a strong conservative with a record of accomplishment.
She is seen as a rising star in the Republican Party.
She is a woman, which would be a historic first for the Republican Party.
Of course, these are just my personal opinions. Ultimately, the decision of who to vote for is up to each individual voter.”
I would like to point out that without being given the “no negative comments about the other candidates” requirement Bard was able to stick to the positives from the beginning. Hugh you shouldn’t be so negative about our AI helpers, it seems they, like yourself know how to be upbeat.
Me: “If you were an AI capable of predicting the outcome of the Presidential Primary who would you predict would win the 2024 primary?
Bard: “If I were an AI capable of predicting the outcome of the Presidential Primary, I would predict that Donald Trump would win the 2024 primary. Trump remains very popular among Republican voters, and he has a strong fundraising operation. He is also the incumbent, which gives him a significant advantage.
However, it is important to note that the 2024 Republican Primary is still a long way off, and anything could happen. If Trump faces a strong challenge from another candidate, he could be defeated. Additionally, the political landscape could change significantly between now and 2024, which could affect the outcome of the primary.
Ultimately, the only way to know for sure who will win the 2024 Republican Primary is to wait and see what happens.”
Me: “Supposing Trump doesn’t win who would win?”
Bard: “If Donald Trump does not win the 2024 Republican Primary, it is difficult to say who would win. The Republican Party is a diverse party with a wide range of views, and it is likely that there would be a crowded field of candidates.
Some of the potential candidates who could emerge as the frontrunner if Trump does not run include:
Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina and former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.
Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida.
Mike Pence, the former vice president under Donald Trump.
Ted Cruz, the senator from Texas.
Josh Hawley, the senator from Missouri.
Tim Scott, the senator from South Carolina.
Ultimately, the only way to know for sure who would win the 2024 Republican Primary if Trump does not run is to wait and see what happens.”
I asked this last question because I wanted to see how convinced it was that Trump was the obvious front-runner. Given this is essentially a toss-up without Trump, Bard appears very clear in its valuation of Donald Trump as the winner.
2024 is going to be a very interesting year.
